Does Weak Jobs Report Hurt Obama Re-Election Bid?

Official photographic portrait of US President Barack Obama (born 4 August 1961; assumed office 20 January 2009) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The March jobs report delivered a downside surprise with the economy adding only 120,000 new payrolls, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 8.2%. Politicians on both sides of the aisle will pounce on these numbers with the Presidential election just seven months away. The question still remains: Just how much will it impact votes in November? “I don’t think there is a magic formula or a specific unemployment number that can guarantee the President’s loss or victory in November,” says Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the Rothenberg Political Report and founder of PoliticsInStereo.com.

Gonzales says it’s more about the perception of the economy and not the actual data. If Americans believe the country is headed in the right direction, they will be less apt to change the leadership. This reality frustrates the White House he says, because voters could be susceptible to a sentiment that may or may not match the numbers. Jobs reports like the ones released today are important, but it’s more about the broader trend leading up to the election.

“If (the economy) starts to go down, there’s more of a hiccup or a stalling…then that just plays right into the Republican hands being able to say ‘look it’s time for a change, the President’s policies aren’t working.'” If jobs numbers are the more cerebral data point, gas prices are the in your face indicator for the average American. “If gas prices are high I think that leads to a little bit of sense the country’s not headed in the right direction,” says Gonzales, “and that would fall on the shoulders of the incumbent president and people may be looking for a change once again.” Regardless of the weakness in the March numbers, Gonzales expects the President to stress overall economic improvement over the course of his first term.

Will improving economic data lead to a second term for Obama, or will Republicans convince voters the country is headed in the wrong direction?

Related articles

• Unemployment Drops to 8.2% (newser.com)
• Obama’s Re-Election Case Bolstered by February Jobs Report – BusinessWeek (businessweek.com)
• In an election about the economy, the culture wars make a comeback (foxnews.com)

Unemployment benefits claims dip to lowest level since April

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The economy is showing signs of modest improvement — not enough to reduce highunemployment but enough to ease fears that another recession might be near. Fewer people applied for unemployment benefits last week, though some of that was due to technical factors. And the economy grew slightly more in the April-June quarter than previously estimated. Growth is also expected to tick up in coming months. Investors drew some hope from the latest data, as well as from news that Germany‘s government approved a plan to bolster Europe‘s response to its debt crisis. TheDow Jones industrial average finished up 143 points, or 1.3 percent, after a day of volatile trading.

The economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the April-June quarter, up from an estimate of 1 percent a month ago, the Commerce Department said. The improvement reflected modestly higher consumer spending and a bigger boost from trade. Even so, the economy grew at an annual rate of just 0.9 percent in the first six months of the year. That’s the weakest six-month performance since the recession ended more than two years ago. Many Americans are spending less because they’re paying off debt. That trend is likely to hold back the economy in the months ahead.

The unemployment rate was stuck at 9.1 percent in August for the second straight month. Employers didn’t add any jobs in August — the weakest showing in nearly a year. Economists expect little if any improvement in hiring for September. Sweet thinks employers will have added 50,000 jobs this month. More than twice as many jobs would be needed just to keep up with population growth. Others are gloomier. Capital Economics predicts that the economy in September will have failed for a second straight month to create any jobs. The main problem, the firm says, is that businesses don’t think their customer demand justifies additional workers. For more information check out the full article here. 

Related articles

• Unemployment benefits applications fall but joblessness remains high (csmonitor.com)
• Economy gaining but not enough to cut unemployment (sfgate.com)
• GDP revised upward, but economy still weak (seattletimes.nwsource.com)

Unemployment Rate

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